You may know poker player Stephen Zolotow: he has appeared on quite a few televised poker shows.
Zolotow wrote this piece for Cardplayer Magazine about his favorite hand. I wanted to write a few comments about the behavior-related stuff he wrote about. (Also, Zolotow’s piece is worth a read for some good explanations of why tells can be so valuable in general: basically, that many poker decisions are close, and therefore even if behavior information is only slightly reliable, this can be very valuable in the long run.)
I’ll quote from Steve’s piece and intersperse that with my thoughts.
In the evening of day 1, I raised in middle position with pocket eights. I was called by the button, who appeared to be a somewhat loose, amateur player. The flop was A-10-3 rainbow, and since the Ace is good for my range, I made a continuation bet of around half pot.
He gave this some thought, said “one-time,” and then called. The turn was an offsuit 9. I fired again for slightly less than pot. He called quickly. On the river the three paired, so the board was now A-10-3-9-3. Perhaps, I should shove, hoping to get a ten or a bad ace to fold, but instead I checked my unimproved pair of eights. He made a large bet, enough to put me all in.
Although I had nearly half my stack invested, I couldn’t beat an ace, a ten, a nine or a three. What should I do?
Let’s return to his comment, ‘one-time’ followed by a slow flop call and his quick call on the turn. I don’t remember hearing someone say one-time when calling in the middle of a hand, but I often hear players who are all-in with the worst of it and need a specific card make that statement. It is common for them to make it with a low pair or a gut shot. For example, one player shows A-K on a board of K-9-8, and his all-in opponent shows A-9 (needing exactly one of the remaining nines) or Q-J (needing exactly a ten.)
Based on this I decided that his flop call on A-10-3 was based on either bottom pair (a three) or a gut shot (K-Q, K-J, or Q-J, or perhaps even 4-2.) When the turn brought a 9, my eights were still best, if my interpretation was correct.
As a general rule, any speech from a non-aggressor (a checker or caller or waiting-to-act player) will make it less likely they have a strong hand. I talk about this in my video series (you can see a short sample from the relevant video here) and a lot in my Verbal Poker Tells book. There are a few things I could say about this, but the major reason for this pattern is that players with stronger hands are generally more mentally focused. They are thinking about how to play the hand optimally. On top of that, players with very strong hands will have an instinct to be quiet and not draw attention to themselves: they have an instinct to “hide their treasure.”
On top of all that, someone with a weaker hand facing a bet can have a motive to seem relaxed: this can account for a lot of the joking statements from callers pre-flop and on flop you see. And on top of all that, non-aggressors with weaker hands can have a motive to say something, anything, that might present a slight obstacle to someone applying aggression. This helps explain why people can make all sorts of statements in these kinds of spots: they are often thinking something like, “Being weird in this spot might make them suspicious I’m being tricky, and maybe they’ll slow down and won’t bet and I’ll get a free card.”
Added to all of this is the fact that most players do tend to be pretty truthful with their language. This of course can vary, and you should note anyone who regularly lies, but it’s a good general rule. As Zolotow notes here, the “one time” is generally said to mean “I’ll call once and see if I improve.” Combined with the previous tendencies, this all adds up to this kind of spot making it very likely this person is saying this with a weaker hand. Back to Zolotow’s hand history:
I fired a second bullet, and now he called quickly. The quick call made me feel like the nine had improved his hand. Which hand, from the list above, got improved by a 9? Only Q-J, which was now an open-ended straight draw. When he makes a large river bet, my pair is only a bluff catcher, but if I’ve interpreted everything correctly, he’s bluffing with Q-J.
I quickly reviewed my analysis and decided to go with it. I stated that I could beat Q-J, and I called.
He turned over Q-J!!!
The quick call is another hugely important poker tell. A quick call will significantly reduce the chances someone has a strong hand. I have a 15-minute video in my video series about this (here’s a short sample from that one). This behavior is most often useful pre-flop and on the flop, when players are more likely to not attempt to be balanced in their behaviors (on turn, as pot gets bigger, they’re a bit more aware). If a player has a good hand, they will usually want to consider the optimal way to play the hand. That applies whether they have a strong-but-not-great hand, or if they have the nuts. Even with the nuts, and even if they will often choose to slowplay it, they will still usually want to consider for a few seconds whether slowplaying makes sense. So the more immediate a call, the more likely it becomes that a player has a weak or medium-strength hand. (There are some interesting details I could go into about how board texture plays a role, but long story short: the more draws are possible on the board, the more reliable the pattern will be, because a player with a strong hand will have to think even more if they really want to slowplay.)
In addition to all that, players with weaker hands in these spots can have a motivation to communicate some confidence, and calling quickly is one way to communicate confidence. The thinking can go, “If I call quickly, maybe he’ll check the river to me.” There’s a general motivation to try to seem relaxed and at ease: a defensive instinct.
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