Ultimate Guide to Poker Tells
by Randy Burgess and Carl Baldassarre
First of all, there is nothing “ultimate” about this book. It’s bad and I wouldn’t make that statement lightly.
While reading this book, I went back and forth several times about how much blame should be directed toward the authors. On the one hand, they are self-proclaimed micro-stakes amateur players, and don’t try to act like they’re professionals. Also, they sound like they really do enjoy poker and seem to believe that they are contributing something meaningful to the community. All of this should count in their favor.
On the other hand, their description of poker strategy and poker tells is very ignorant. While reading this book, I was constantly shaking my head, scrawling margin notes that basically said, “WTF?”
Eventually I decided that the authors should be blamed a bit just because of the amateur nature of this project. They could have consulted with real-life poker players to make up for their own ignorance. They could have tried their darnedest to make it a valuable book. But they didn’t try very hard, I don’t think.
I don’t have anything against an amateurishly written book, but I don’t think it’s cool when such a venture is packaged as something “ultimate”, and when the content of the venture will lose people money if they falsely think they are armed with useful knowledge.
While there are a few decent observations in this book that anybody who’s read Caro’s Book of Tells already knows, the mis-steps and mistakes are far too numerous to ignore, and taint any potentially good information. I will catalogue a few of the more egregious mistakes/ambiguities I found in the book. There are many more strategy-related mistakes than I will describe here; I’ll concentrate primarily on the ones about tells and psychology.
At the end I’ll give one nice thing I took from the book.
1 – Ridiculous Limit Strategy
In a chapter called ‘Telegraphs with Starting Cards’, the authors talk about spotting a tell that someone behind you is going to raise pre-flop. They recommend, if you have Aces or Kings to limp with the intention of re-raising. This is in a limit game. I’m going to give them the benefit of the doubt that this was a typo and should have been a no-limit game, but it is a recurring problem in this book that the strategies they talk about make you wonder if they’re even describing the right game. Okay – that’s it for strategy nit-picking.
2 – Hesitation Before Checking
In a tell they call ‘Glancing at chips’, they describe a player who’s first to act in a three-way pot. They say, “The big blind hesitates, glances at his chips, then taps the table.” Their explanation? “The big blind wanted to bet—hence the glance at his chips—but held up after thinking about it.” They recommend being cautious, because that player could have a decent hand.
In fact, as most of you know, someone who acts like they want to bet and then doesn’t is probably weak 90% of the time. They want to make you think they almost bet, which means they care enough about the hand to feign interest, but they will fold to a bet most of the time, or else call with a draw or a weak made hand.
3 – Betting Immediately After a Card Comes
In a tell they call “Too quick to be true”, they describe a heads-up hold’em hand where a third suited card hits on the river, making a backdoor flush possible, and your opponent bets immediately into you. They state that this is a probable bluff, because “most players who actually do backdoor a flush here will spend at least a few seconds considering whether they should bet or go for a checkraise.” Their response is that “if you read this tell right, folding isn’t an option…”
Actually, in my experience, anyone who bets immediately after a new card arrives, (and by immediately I mean in a fraction of a second) is usually strong. Unless you’ve observed someone betting immediately and being weak, you should assume they’re strong. The reason for this is simple: betting immediately is a strange thing to do. It calls attention to the person that does it. People who are bluffing do not want to call attention to themselves. They might bet quickly, but it won’t be immediately.
Also in this chapter is a weird, illogical description of a hand played between T.J. Cloutier and Paul Phillips, where Phillips has pocket Queens and Cloutier has a pair of Jacks on a Jack 6 2 flop with two clubs. Phillips bets and Cloutier calls. Turn comes a 9 of clubs, and Cloutier takes control of the hand by betting out (immediately according to the authors, although I can’t find the video – has anyone seen it?). Phillips makes a stupid fold. You can read a description of the hand here: http://www.worldpokertour.com/Shared/Tournaments/Seasons/Season_2/The_Bicycle_Casino_Legends_of_Poker.aspx
The authors describe this action as follows:
T.J. immediately sits up, glares at Phillips, and bangs out a $200,000 bet, representing a made flush instead of the lousy pair of Jacks he really holds. The acting job so impresses Phillips that he folds the best hand and the best draw…
The comical part is that they give T.J. credit for knowing he was bluffing there, despite the fact that AJ in that situation is a strong hand, and not “lousy”.
4 – Betting Out of Turn
They describe a player who has caught a seemingly harmless card in 7-stud and who then proceeds to bet out of turn, apologizing and pulling his bet back. Their interpretation of this?
Almost certainly this player has improved his hand; the question is to what? Would he bet out of turn with two pair? Not likely. You’d have to give strong consideration to his having caught a third Jack to go with pocket Jacks he was calling along with, especially if his body language betrays excitement in some way.
Got that? Next time a player bets out of turn, seemingly accidentally, you should give them credit for the strongest possible hand and fold your hand.
In my experience, anyone betting out of turn, or almost betting out of turn, is either genuinely confused, or else trying to make you think they’re strong. I’ve never played in a game so amateur that players who hit a hidden set get so excited that they just bet without thinking whose turn it is. Maybe back when I was playing for nickels, but even that’s a stretch.
Right after their explanation they say:
In a variation, the player checks out of turn rather than bets out of turn. It’s not as easy to interpret as the bet out of turn, but could mean he wanted to check-raise and got too eager.
That has to be one of the weirdest statements in the book. I don’t think you’ll be seeing any of these tells in any game.
5 – A Shaking Leg
They describe a shaking leg as more indicative of someone bluffing than of having a big hand. The shaking leg, they say, is a sign of nervousness. This is not true in my experience. People who allow their legs to shake are comfortable. People who are bluffing are most likely to become still. I’ve never seen someone with a shaking leg make a bluff. (Read my post about a player with a shaking leg here.)
6 – Slumping
In a tell they call ‘Missing a draw and slumping’, they describe a player on the river who sees the river cards and immediately slumps down in a defeated way. Their explanation for this is that he’s missed his draw and his slumping is a genuine display of disappointment.
But more likely, someone who is subtly slumping and looking disappointed is one of the main tells I regularly use to spot people who are happy with their hands. This goes against the authors own copying of Caro’s “Weak means strong” philosophy.
The authors also advise the following strategy:
If you spot the slump and read it as real, you’ll generally want to bet if you’re head-up… [If] you hold a decent hand, you may as well value-bet it. An advantage of not getting called by the busted draw is that you don’t have to show your hand…
So despite already deciding that the slump means the player missed a draw, they advice betting into them with a hand, despite the fact that the opponent will just fold if they actually hold a missed draw and call/raise you when you are beat. A lose-lose situation. The only way to play this hand (assuming the slumping actually means weakness, which, again, you won’t see too often) is to check it to your opponent to hope they bluff. That is pretty basic poker strategy.
7 – Intuition
The authors say you need to “recognize and respect your intuition”. This seems to be a common myth; the idea that intuition and feeling play a large part in great poker play. They compare the intuition of good players to the art of jury-selection. Actually, though, jury consultants and lawyers have extremely concrete and statistical reasons for the decisions they make. (Read Grisham’s The Runaway Jury for an entertaining look into some real-world jury-selection processes.)
Similarly, good poker players do not often rely on something as flimsy as gut-feelings or intuition. They would rather rely on tested observation and conscious experience. A good player might use his feeling when these other conscious tools have left him in a situation he feels is 50-50, but for the most part, good players have no use for intuition. (Although I will admit I am biased because I myself have very little “gut feeling” and have had to make up for it with conscious observation.)
8 – Angle-Shooting
The authors go into their fears of angle-shooting. With them it seems to be a real phobia. The angle-shooting they describe is of the simplest variety, and nothing I’ve seen very often at any level about 4-8 limit or 1-2 no-limit.
It lends credence to my belief that only amateur players worry at all about angle-shooting. I am okay with virtually any activity at a poker table that doesn’t involve active cheating or collusion. Angle-shooting, as most people describe, is stuff that doesn’t break the rules but that is immoral. I don’t have a problem with any action that doesn’t break the rules and that can be just as easily done by anyone else at the table. Anyone with a moderate amount of experience playing live will never fall prey to the common angle shoots.
Good Things
The one good idea I gleaned from this book was the idea of practicing putting your chips into the pot in a uniform fashion. This experiment got you to focus on the deviations you would inevitably make away from the set manner. If you could start to notice your own patterns, then you could extrapolate your mannerisms out to other players. I’m a big fan of self-study to gain insight into other players, but I’d never thought to do this one, and I still plan on trying it.
Summary
It wasn’t good.
Carl Baldassarre says
As a co-author of this book, I take fairly serious exception to this review. There are two general problems. The first is that while you acknowledge that the book is by amateur recreational players, and does not purport to be an expert guide, you assess much of the content as if it is intended for advanced, professional players in high stakes games. The second is that you dismiss some tells, for example betting out of turn and the shaking leg. But we provide context and explain the reasoning behind the tell’s meaning for a particular player, in a particular context. For example, there’s no reason to think a shaking leg means, in general, that a player is more or less relaxed. It depends on what you’ve observed. I also think many of your critiques apply more to higher stakes games, where more experienced players are more likely to be acting. In general, our intention with this book was to sum up the existing literature and related information on tells in a quick, fun book for recreational players.
Your thought that we did the book to make money and are cynical like “reminescent of the Bush administration” is ill-informed at best, self-serving at worst. Now, I think you’ve set up your book in a way to perhaps make some decent money. I don’t know how much you pay to amazon or other sellers, or how much you’ve spent on advertising on 2+2, but if 50% of your profits go to overhead, you could make about $7.50 per e book. So if you sell 50,000, you’d make $37,500. That’s more than we have made to date, but still not a large sum. We did our book for fun, because we enjoy poker. It’s been said that self-publishing success is 20% quality of the work and 80% marketing. I’ve heard your book is good, and look forward to reading it. As an advertising professional, I can see that your marketing is excellent. But I wonder if in this review it has (perhaps unintentionally) crossed the line to unfairly attacking the “competition”.
apokerplayer says
Well now I feel kind of bad. When you write a review you can forget there are real people behind it.
I do stand by my review though. I think there were many problems with the book. I probably could have phrased it a bit more politically. And left out the dramatic Bush reference. But I do stand by it. Though after your response I no longer think there was anything really nefarious about your goals. I just think you should have realized your own weaknesses and not, at the least, have called it Ultimate.
Regarding your book being good for more amateur players; I’d disagree with that. I actually think it does them more of a disservice because they are not in a position to know better. I think emphasizing any kind of tell-reading importance to beginners is doing them no favors. Just because they’d be so much better off concentrating on fundamentals and not thinking about tells. And I go out of my way to say that several times in my book. My main point for amateur players is to emphasize how important it is to hide their tells from more experienced players. If they at least do that, I feel like my book is a good buy for even the most amateur players.
I had no ulterior motive behind criticizing your book except the fact that it does kind of bother me when people act more knowledgable about stuff than they are. I got fired up to write my book after reading Navarro’s book, and not liking it, and after reading your book and not liking it.
Also – I think u made a math mistake in there. Not sure where the mistake was. Maybe I’m reading it wrong. But if do want to change it let me know and I will edit.
Actually, if you do want to correspond about stuff I’d be up for it. Maybe we could both learn something. I think I’ll take out the references to you being greedy; that was a bit mean of me. I’m curious about your experiences.
apokerplayer says
Oh and Carl, you shouldn’t feel bad. If I really was dissing your book for attention purposes I would have done it on 2+2 and Amazon, etc. I chose to do itcorner pretty quiet corner of my blog. Hardly anyone has read this review, if it matters. And I knew hardly anyone would see it when I wrote it. If it makes you feel any better I barely get any traffic to my book reviews,
Carl Baldassarre says
Well, it’s nice of you to respond so directly. I think it’s dead wrong to say the book is misleading and downright presumptuous to say it never should have been written. And to even think in terms of the book being “nefarious” is just silly. So if you stand by those aspects of your review, I think you aren’t being objective or are just very misguided (btw, I hated W too, so it’s especially insulting to be compared to him and Cheney and the oil patch gang). For a recreational player, I stand by our book as a fun introduction to the subject. We’ve gotten some good reviews, and even Mason Malmuth said it was a nice general summary or something of the sort in a micro-review shortly after it was published. I don’t know how to say this without sounding pompous, but the money aspect of the book was a total non-factor. I could write a corporate microsite, app or article as a freelance gig in a couple of weeks and make the same money I made for the book with a crazy amount less work. As for the review hurting my feelings or sales, I’m not hurt, just interested in correcting what I see are inaccuracies. I would be interested in learning more about your experiences self-publishing. For my previous books, I’ve gone with trad. publishers but will definitely self publish if I do another.
apokerplayer says
Carl, sorry that took me so long. I was out of town for a couple weeks and meant to say this earlier. I changed the review to take away a few of my more mean-spirited statements. I think I was in a bad mood when I wrote it. I shouldn’t have been so cynical and mean and I apologize. To compare you to George W. Bush was stupid of me; nobody deserves that.
I guess my main problem with the book was calling it Ultimate. I could forgive everything else if it wasn’t for that.
I had another question; I was curious about your math in that first post of yours. You said something “you could make about $7.50 per e book. So if you sell 50,000, you’d make $37,500”, but at those numbers you’d have $375,000. I was just curious what you meant, cause obviously that’d be a lot of money.
And not that I think your venture was a profit-motivated one, but you saying you didn’t make much money on the book doesn’t prove that money wasn’t a motivation in writing it. Just from a logical debate perspective.
Carl Baldassarre says
Wow. My bad on dropping a zero. This self-publishing thing may be (alot) better than I was thinking. How are my numbers? I based them on the notion that after paying about 1/3 to the ebook seller and marketing costs you’d be left with about 50% profit. So you could actually make some real money.
To your point about my motive being to make money, we published our book in a traditional publishing model where we got an advance and set royalties. Suffice to say, our “reasonable best case” upside was nowhere near $37,500, let alone $375,000. So for us money was not an issue. You’ll just have to trust me on that.
Speaking of which, considering the amount of money involved in having your book be seen as the “ultimate”, not ours I think it’s fair to question the objectivity of your comments.
apokerplayer says
Again, I believe you that your book wasn’t a money-grab; I was just saying that the argument wasn’t a logical one.
I’ll send you an email telling you about how I’ve got the self-publishing set up and how much I’m making per book and all that. You might find it educational if you do another book.
Zachary Elwood says
I just wanted to come back in here and say that, upon rereading my review of this book, I did find that I was in the wrong and needlessly insulting. I sent an email to Carl apologizing for my childish insults. And I did go back into the article and change the stuff that didn’t add to an objective view of the book.
No real excuse for my being so needlessly mean except that when I was writing it, I didn’t think very much about the people who had worked on the book, and I wasn’t used to anyone reading what I wrote. And I was probably in a bad mood for some reason. And I thought that the book was a cynical work but after hearing Carl’s explanation I don’t think that is so and I think they tried their best.
I’ve learned from this experience. Sorry, Carl and Randy.
Rob says
Hi Zach, just incase you’re still monitoring this review, could I raise a query about one of your statements – it’s about number 3, the immediate bet. Above you say that an immediate bet is more indicative of a strong hand, but that’s not the impression I get from your video series which broadly says that immediate bets make strong hands less likely. Could you please clarify? Thanks Zach.